Tradersslog

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Another 8-10% fall in the coming weeks

The last time global equity markets were falling at this pace (on a growth scare) was the fall of 2011. That time, after a big push lower, November saw a mass co-ordinated easing by central banks to save the world... stock jumped, the global economy spurted into action briefly, and all was well. This time, it's different. The Fed is tapering (and the hurdle to change course is high), the ECB balance sheet is shrinking (and there's nothing but promises), the PBOC tonight said "anyone anticipating additional stimulus would be disappointed," and then the BoJ failed to increase their already-ridiculous QE (ETF purchase) programs. The JPY is strengthening, Asian and US stocks are dropping, CNY is weakening, and gold rising.

Account up 25% since start trading in Feb

Plan the Trades and Trade the Plan!

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Yuan Tumbles To 11-Month Lows As China Home Price Growth Slows

It would appear that the widening of the daily trading bands (we discussed last night) are having a directional effect on USDCNY as the devaluation continues on the back of forced carry-trade unwinds. At 6.19, CNY is its weakest in 11 months (2.5% weaker than its lows in January) and the last 2 months have seen by far the biggest weakening in the currency on record. This 'implied' easing is modestly supporting the stock market and copper for now (though we suspect that is more spillover from risk-on squeezes post-Ukraine). While Goldman and BofA are adamant that widening the bands will not mean a change in trend overall, it seems clear that hot money is outflowing and driving a trend change anyway as corporate bond prices are not rising and home-price appreciation is slowing in the major cities...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-17/yuan-tumbles-11-month-lows-china-home-price-growth-slows

Thursday, February 20, 2014

WTC Trading Account Update

After a couple week of walk-forward testing, we managed to connect Trade Navigator to Vision and also add a couple of different strategies to the basket. The latest one being added is a long/short volatility breakout trend-following strategy. It trades off an opening range breakout and a simple price pattern condition. Its average holding period is around 2 days.