Trading against the losers:
I try not to think I am trading the markets, rather to think my counterparty is the market losers. They compete with me in the market and eventally their money will transfer to me. Sound positive, right? But how do we pick the loser group to trade against?
Lets take a look of the Japanese Yen weekly chart. The bottom panel is the index using COT small speculators' position to figure out. When this group of trader is relatively bullish ( above 75) , Yen is likely to top out. When they are relatively bearish (below 25), Yen is going to bottom out. Haha, they are the one I am looking for and to trade against in the long run.

Where are they now? It is below 25 and they are relatively bearish on Yen. To be a contrarian, we should look for buy signals on Yen.